After a destructive year for wildfires in 2025, we enter the Northern Hemisphere fire season with current and forecast weather conditions that threaten another year of significant wildfire activity.
There were 77,850 wildfires reported in the U.S. last year, well above the long-term average. However, the total area burned (five million acres) was about two million acres below long-term averages. For the lower 48 states, the southern area had the most fires, while Alaska had the most acres burned — as is often the case. The most destructive wildfires occurred early in the year, and these were the January wildfires that struck Los Angeles. These fires were responsible for 30 deaths, and with over 16,000 structures (mainly houses) destroyed, damage was in the billions of dollars.
The arrival of spring has brought ominous signs for the wildfire season ahead. Much of the western U.S. had its warmest winter on record, with limited snowpack in many mountainous regions. This was followed by the warmest March for at least 130 years for the lower 48 states. Although the West Coast had some significant precipitation events over the winter, the moisture did not make it across the western mountains. The first three months of 2026 combined were the driest on record for the lower 48, with only 70% of the average amount of precipitation.
The current U.S. Drought Monitor shows that except for states around the Great Lakes and the mid Mississippi Valley, most of the U.S. is in drought — including over 90% of the western U.S. This extends into the High Plains, where some of the worst conditions are occurring. In the east, the drought is extensive, covering the Deep South (90% coverage) and Southeast (100% coverage, 60% extreme) where south Georgia and northern Florida are suffering with the worst “D4” — exceptional drought — conditions.
The end result of these weather conditions has been an early and explosive start to the wildfire season. As of May 1, over 24,000 wildfires have been reported in the U.S., burning 1.8 million acres. The number of wildfires is 50% above normal and the acreage burned is twice as much as the 10-year average, marking the worst start to the U.S. wildfire season in 10 years.
Nebraska was hit particularly hard early on, with four major wildfires igniting on Mar. 12 and burning for over a week. The Morrill Fire became the largest single wildfire in Nebraska history, scorching more than 643,000 acres, bringing the total area burned by wildfires in the state to over 800,000 acres. More recently, southern Georgia and northern Florida have seen tens of thousands of acres burned, with many large fires.
The forecast for the rest of the spring and the summer months is not encouraging. With the exception of the area around the Great Lakes, the rest of the U.S. is forecast to see above normal temperatures — especially in the west. Below normal rainfall is also predicted for the northern Rockies into the Plains. Keep in mind seasonal dryness in California would be forecast as normal precipitation. Alaska is forecast to have normal to above normal summer rainfall.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook is also foreboding. Drought is predicted to continue in the interior Southeast and to intensify and spread in the western half of the lower 48 states.
As a result of these forecast weather conditions, the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook highlights areas of concern. Drought-ridden Florida maintains a high level of danger through the summer. This is also true of the Southeast, as conditions are expected to worsen through the summer. Out west, the greatest risk starts in the Southwest and southern Rockies. As the summer progresses, the maximum risk area shifts to the northwest and eventually encompasses the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies by August.
Conditions in Canada
In Canada, 2025 brought another difficult wildfire season. Over 6,000 fires burned 9 million hectares (22 million acres). This was twice the 10-year average and second only to 2024 when 16 million hectares (40 million acres) burned. In fact, Canada’s three worst wildfire seasons have occurred in the last three years.
Overall drought conditions improved over Canada this past winter. However, drought continues in the southwestern Prairie provinces, with the worst conditions near the central British Columbia/Alberta border. As of the beginning of May, over 500 wildfires have been reported in Canada — mostly in British Columbia and Alberta. So far, 2,700 hectares (6,000 acres) have burned, well below the long-term average.
However, the weather forecast for the rest of spring into the summer isn’t encouraging. Above normal temperatures are expected for most of the country. Although northern areas are predicted to have normal to above normal rainfall, southern Canada is forecast to be dry.
The southwestern Prairies are expected to have “high severity” forest fire conditions, as is typical in the late spring and summer. Many other parts of Canada not so prone to intense fires are expected to have “above normal” to “well above normal” severity conditions. Areas of particular concern include southern and central interior British Columbia, the Hudson Bay forested region into east central Northwest Territories, and the western Maritimes.
Europe following a record-breaking year
For Europe, the wildfire season of 2025 was the most severe since records started being kept in 2006. Over one million hectares (2.5 million acres) were burned. This was twice the 20-year average. In the first three weeks of August, Portugal and Spain were ravaged by fires which burned 460,585 hectares (1 million acres). At one point, over 20 major fires were burning simultaneously on the Iberian Peninsula. Germany, Cyprus, and Slovakia also set records for area burned.
Going into this year’s wildfire season in Europe, April was warm and dry. Some areas of drought have developed in Spain and France, and in Eastern Europe, drought is widespread. So far in 2026, there have been over 800 wildfires in the E.U. — twice the long-term average for this time. However, the area burned — over 80,000 hectares (200,000 acres) — is close to the long-term average. France and Spain have accounted for most of the burned area.
Most of Europe is forecast to have above normal temperatures through spring and summer. The spring/summer rainfall forecasts for Europe are mostly close to normal, with only fairly minor areas of wetness and dryness. However, this may just be a reflection of forecast weather patterns not producing strong precipitation signals one way or the other. What we’ve seen in the recent past is intense heat waves in the summer — and these have been occurring more frequently and with a greater intensity. Conditions favorable for major wildfires can develop rapidly.
