As we head into another summer and wildfire season for the Northern Hemisphere, it’s time to see how recent and upcoming weather systems might impact this year’s wildfires.
In the United States last year, nearly nine million acres were burned, much more than the previous year — and well above the 10-year average. The Southwest, which has experienced the worst drought conditions, saw the most damaging fires.
Already in 2025, wildfires have ravaged parts of the U.S. The Los Angeles fires in January, which burned nearly 50,000 acres, were the result of extremely dry conditions and very strong winds. Thirty people were killed and property damage (16,000 structures, mostly homes) is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Wildfires in Oklahoma in March killed several people and burned over 100,000 acres. As of early May, the number of fires and acreage burned — nearly one million acres — are both above average. Unusually large fires had already burned in eastern states such as Florida, North Carolina, and New Jersey.
Going into the summer wildfire season, many areas of the U.S. are dry. Much of the East Coast is in some degree of drought extending down to Florida, where almost the entire state is experiencing drought conditions with some of it in the “extreme” category. Much of the High Plains is in drought, but the worst conditions are found in the Southwest, from west Texas to southern California. Some areas of “D4” — exceptional drought — have developed here.
The long range weather outlooks amazingly show all 50 states with above normal temperatures for the summer.
The East Coast, including Florida, is expected to have above normal rainfall, probably due to a predicted active Atlantic hurricane season. This is forecast to eliminate drought conditions there. The Southwest is also forecast to get drought relief with anticipated monsoonal rains. Alaska is forecast to have above normal precipitation, but also more of a threat of lightning. Much of the western U.S., from the Plains to the West Coast, should see dry conditions and far above normal temperatures. Drought conditions are forecast to expand and extend from the Canadian to the Mexican borders.
As a result of the forecast weather conditions, the significant wildland fire potential will remain high for the East Coast and Southwest until expected precipitation occurs in July. However, intensifying drought should enhance significant wildfire risk in central Oklahoma and Texas throughout the summer. And with seasonal dryness being exacerbated out west, significant wildfires will become more likely in the mountainous areas of California through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. Dry conditions are also likely to increase wildfire risk in Hawaii, starting in July.
The Canadian wildfire season saw over five million hectares (13 million acres) burned in 2024. This made it the second-most destructive fire season since 1995, only surpassed by the record-breaking almost seven million hectares (17 million acres) lost in 2023. Unlike the year before, when wildfires spread over much of the country, last year saw most wildfire activity focused in western Canada.
Going into the 2025 fire season, much of Canada is seeing “conditions not favorable to support significant wildland fire activity.” It is generally wet in the eastern provinces, with patches of drought in the western provinces — with British Columbia and Alberta hardest hit. As of the end of April, a below normal 5,500 hectares (14,000 acres) have been burned so far, mostly in British Columbia and Alberta.
As is the case for the U.S., all of Canada is forecast to have above normal temperatures this summer. With the exception of northern British Columbia and Alberta, which are forecast to be wet, much of southern Canada is predicted to have below normal precipitation. The Wildfire Severity Index is forecast to be above normal throughout much of western Canada, and “extreme” in southern British Columbia and Saskatchewan as summer starts. The index rises to well above normal throughout much of western Canada as the summer progresses, with southern British Columbia and Saskatchewan having the greatest risk. Conditions begin to improve by September, but the risk remains high in southern areas.
Europe experienced a generally typical wildfire season in 2024 in terms of area burned. Major fires were reported in Portugal and Ukraine. Going into this year’s wildfire season, dry or drought conditions were occurring over much of northern and eastern Europe. By the end of April, the number of wildfires and the area burned (161,000 hectares, 400,000 acres) were both well above normal.
The forecast for the summer calls for above normal temperatures from May through September over the entire continent. By June, western Spain and France are forecast to become increasingly dry. In July, the dry forecast expands to include much of central and southern Europe. Rainfall is predicted to increase in the east by August. In September, dryness returns to much of central and southern European countries.
